Part 1:
In 2003, in Bali, Indonesia, ASEAN leaders adopted the ASEAN Concord II Declaration, under which they agreed to form the ASEAN Community by 2020, with three main pillars: ASEAN political – security community, ASEAN economic community, and ASEAN socio-cultural community.
To adapt to international and regional changes, ASEAN leaders accelerated the completion of this goal five years earlier than expected. On December 31, 2015, the ASEAN Community was signed by leaders of 10 member countries.
Let’s look back at what we have done together, what has not been done and what needs to be improved to jointly build the most effective ASEAN Economic Community.
VietNamNet talked with former Deputy Prime Minister Vu Khoan, Dr. Do Duc Dinh and Dr. Vo Tri Thanh.
Looking back half a century of ASEAN’s development, what are the most important marks, in your opinion?
Vu Khoan: Since its formation (August 8, 1967), ASEAN has gone through three stages: The period from 1960 to 1990 was the formative stage. During this time, ASEAN had five member countries. At that time, the internal situation of these countries was not good or they were in crisis and it was also the time of the Indochina War. The Southeast Asia faced serious threat due to the dispute of major powers. They were forced to find ways to come together to defend themselves. It is not a coincidence that the idea of a neutral Southeast Asia was launched in 1971. And in 1976, for the first time the Friendship Cooperation was signed to form an organization of Southeast Asia.
The second phase, in the 1990s, is called the stage of enhancement and extension. In this stage, ASEAN admitted four more state members: Vietnam (1995), Myanmar and Laos (1997), and Cambodia (1998), bringing its total members to ten. In this period ASEAN began having dialogue with the world's major countries, including the European Union.
Previously, cooperation within ASEAN was quite poor. In this second stage, the idea of a free trade area (AFTA) was launched, which was shown in the general tariff agreement and opening the period of trade liberalization in the region, which was in line with the trend of globalization at the time.
Besides economic cooperation, security cooperation also increased, as shown by the launch of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1993.
Also during this period, the Treaty of Southeast Asia without Nuclear weapons was signed, and for the first time ASEAN released the Declaration on the East Sea (South China Sea) in Manila in 1992. ASEAN was expanded and enhanced in all aspects.
The third stage from the late 1990s until 2015 was the time the idea about and the preparation for the establishment of the ASEAN Community, bringing ASEAN cooperation to a new height. In this stage, ASEAN introduced the Vision to 2020 and the ASEAN Concord (Bali 2) and the Hanoi Declaration, showing the way for the three-pillar ASEAN Community.
These are the three important stages that we have passed. Since 2015 ASEAN has been in a new stage, the fourth stage.
Dr. Do Duc Dinh: When it was founded, one of the original goals of ASEAN was to establish the SITO bloc, like NATO in the West.
Since 1967, the opposition was reduced and this organization moved toward cooperation. That was a major achievement. Security cooperation made a huge impact on economic cooperation as the formation of a free trade area, tax reduction...
Dr Vo Tri Thanh: Despite a lot of disagreements, shortcomings and controversies, ASEAN has kept improving.
Since its formation, not 100% of economic targets set by the ASEAN community have been achieved. So far, ASEAN’s most notable achievements are that ASEAN has realized that only unity can help maintain peace, stability and development in the region.
Like it or not, outsiders have admitted ASEAN as an international entity in Asia - Pacific. ASEAN has promoted investment and trade, although intra-ASEAN trade is not high and does not have fast development speed, but it is still tied to global production and trade networks.
As you can see, security is always a central issue in an ASEAN forum. Why has regional security always been an interest of this organization?
Vu Khoan: The trend of peace and cooperation in South East Asia has developed a lot compared to the Cold War. But ASEAN still faces a lot of security threats. ASEAN's approach is overall security, including territorial border security, economic security, national crime issues, climate and financing issues...
The geopolitics of Southeast Asia is particularly important and attracts the attention of big and powerful countries. This region controls the shipping route from Europe to the Middle East, from the Middle East to the Far East and then to the US. This position is particularly important and is related to major countries like the US, Japan, China ... Both factors inside and outside ASEAN force ASEAN to pay attention to ensuring regional security.
I would like to emphasize that this security - political cooperation bloc is unlike NATO. It is not a military ally, but a bloc to deal with security threats, in the spirit of avoiding conflicts, and resolving conflicts by peaceful commitments.
To have a common voice on security and economics, member countries need to have mutual understanding. But I think ASEAN still needs to do more to promote cultural - social cooperation?
Dr. Do Duc Dinh: ASEAN has identified the three-pillar cooperation. The political, security and economic aspects have emerged, and that is a prerequisite for development. Cultural - social has been mentioned but it has not developed strongly. In fact, cultural – social cooperation in ASEAN community has many differences. ASEAN recently has had more co-operation activities, especially in the field of education. However, the gap of habits, beliefs and culture among state countries is huge. Furthermore, investment in this sector is still too low.
More deeply, cultural and social factors play a major role in maintaining cohesion and sustainability. Seeing developments in the Middle East and the world in recent time, we see the issues such as culture, race, religion ... are especially important in preserving harmony and stability, and these factors need to be promoted.
Vu Khoan: Southeast Asian countries have their indigenous culture and their own languages. Besides, this region is influenced by several main cultural streams: Chinese culture, Indian culture and Western culture which was brought into the region by colonists so the culture in this region is very diverse.
In addition, ASEAN still looks like an organization of officials rather than an organization of the people. ASEAN needs to set the goal to take care of human issues, ensure social security, social justice, environmental issues, cultural identity and level of development. The road of building the ASEAN cultural - social community is still a long, difficult one that requires patience.
Dr Vo Tri Thanh: As Mr. Vu Khoan said, the cultural – social pillar of ASEAN today is still top-down, not bottom up.
The thing ASEAN needs to do now is to promote the participation of different classes. The people must be involved in the policy-making process of ASEAN, strengthen links, and above all, they must see the benefit for themselves in their participation.
Part 2:
"Like many other regions in the world, ASEAN always has to face many challenges in which the success or failure of interaction with other countries, particularly the big or powerful ones, is the most important."
How can this association find a common voice for the next stage, and complete its three pillar targets as member countries signed last year with different political – cultural models and differences in the relations and interests among ASEAN members and the major countries in the world?
Dr Vo Tri Thanh: In terms of economics, ASEAN has not created a strong brand. More precisely, no brand has been recognized in practice.
There's a pretty good point here, the way of connection of ASEAN is the government links of developing countries, with many good things to learn, although there are still many points of controversy and challenges.
ASEAN understands that they must act as a group to be strong enough to sufficiently benefit its member countries and to have its voice in the development of Asia - Pacific. More or less, major countries have recognized that central role of ASEAN.
Like many other regions in the world, ASEAN always has to face many challenges. The success or failure of interaction with other countries, especially the big countries outside the region, requires a strong internal force. The matter is not only the enforcement of the three-pillar target. The current problem is the institutionalization of ASEAN which has certain problems. Although it has the Charter, ASEAN has yet to have a strong institution and sufficient resources to handle the current issues.
In addition, the principle of ASEAN such as a comprehensive agreement also restricts the power of the bloc in important moments. In addition to traditional security issues, non-traditional security also brings about many challenges for ASEAN.
Besides the common commitments, ASEAN still recognizes the right of each country in the conduct of bilateral relations with outside countries, especially big countries. The interests of each member country and regional interests are not always in the same direction.
In my opinion, there are two matters: Firstly, we must put the ASEAN Charter on the table to discuss and to find an ASEAN with more solid connections and a stronger ASEAN. Secondly, when the issue is placed on the scale, member countries must understand that in the long-term, non-alignment or selfishness will bring about incalculable consequences not only for ASEAN but for those countries. Centripetal force is more powerful than centrifugal force.
In this context, how should the ASEAN member countries in general and Vietnam in particular do to keep the policy balanced, and not fall into the spiral of power competition among powers, to develop peacefully together?
Dr. Do Duc Dinh: ASEAN is considered one of the most successful models of the southern countries. Previously the South put forward the nonalignment movement; especially during the Cold War, the South was not affiliated with any side, nor had any fulcrum. ASEAN is a specific model, with appropriate choices.
In Europe, it is a process of development, from the European Community to the European Economic Community and now the European Union. Africa, with many countries that are less developed than ASEAN, established the African Union but this organization could not develop. ASEAN is an association, which is not tight as Europe, not loose like Africa, but is a fairly consistent model. So, although some ASEAN members are allies of the US and some are tied to China there is still a balance between ASEAN countries.
To avoid the interference of big countries, ASEAN has several important principles: operating on the principle of consensus - if a country does not agree, ASEAN will not release a joint resolution; having dialogue forum with outside countries such as the US, China, India .... Thanks to this flexibility, so far ASEAN has not been pushed into asituation in which it must choose one side against the others. It is the wise choice and success.
This is shown clearly through dialogue between ASEAN and major powers that have strong influence in the Pacific. ASEAN’s ARF even has more influence than the APEC forum.
Vu Khoan: There are three characteristics of Southeast Asia affecting their behavior. Firstly, as we talked before, Southeast Asia has a very important economic geopolitical location. Secondly, most Southeast Asian countries are poor and weak. Thirdly, each country also has its own benefits.
These points lead to behavioral traits with major countries. Firstly, ASEAN countries are aware of the importance of the region’s geopolitical location and know that powers need this region. That is very important. No other organization in the world could do as ASEAN: attracting all the major countries. ASEAN wisely takes advantage of this interest to uphold its role.
Secondly, the forum of ASEAN gathers harmonious voices.
Thirdly, despite different benefits, ASEAN has always had things in common, and the most common thing is the desire for peace and stability.
Fourthly, the policy of diversifying relations. All member countries are pursuing a policy of diversification and multilateralism. These characteristics also affect the behavior of member nations.
Based on the current intra-regional relations and the signing of the formation of the ASEAN Economic Community, what do you think about business opportunities, the opportunities to improve the environment for economic cooperation between the countries in the bloc and with other major partners?
Dr Vo Tri Thanh: The signing is only a milestone in a process of evolution and building of the ASEAN Community. In ASEAN's 50-year history, the most powerful period is the time since the mid-90s. That process has brought about many benefits and several inner problems for ASEAN to continue its path. The future stage has two things: accomplishing the remaining roadmap or the action programs of ASEAN; and more importantly, connecting ASEAN with the vision forward - an ASEAN of strong connectivity and a strong common voice.
We can see that the ASEAN Vision after 2015 further emphasizes liberalization of goods, services, stronger investment, a broader common market and unified production base.
Secondly, ASEAN connectivity needs the connection of hard work, soft infrastructure, and human resources. In addition, we also need a more innovative, more dynamic ASEAN, an ASEAN with a better role in the creation of innovative and high-tech products; a greener, more sustainable, more environmentally friendly ASEAN; and an ASEAN that benefits all and especially, an ASEAN with a stronger common voice.
To achieve these results, ASEAN will not only need to realize the ASEAN Economic Community, but also need to build a roadmap for the future, along with stronger reforms of its institution and mechanisms.
With all these things, in fact to have a really strong ASEAN, a model connecting developing countries in a world full of changes and risks, many issues must be solved.
I believe that the value of the links will be stronger. The other values can conflict with the connection process. ASEAN has had 50 years of challenges and despite some problems, obviously it has brought about undeniable benefits. One of the most important benefits is the stability for development. Behind it is a wide-open horizon for business.
In international relations, besides the diplomatic activities at state level, there should be the people's external activities, inter-parliamentary diplomacy?
Vu Khoan: This is not my personal comment. ASEAN leaders recognized the importance of public diplomacy very early. They had set a target of turning an 'organization of officials' into an organization of the people, and set several directions as follows:
One, widely disseminating ASEAN activities among the people; Two, creating easy exchanges, typically dropping the intra-ASEAN visa; Three, organizing many common activities such as singing, writing competitions,... besides activities in the ASEAN cultural - social community. I believe that ASEAN’s public diplomacy is growing and is remarkably effective.
Part 3:
"In any condition, we always have to strengthen and maintain relations with neighboring countries, especially ASEAN," former Deputy Prime Minister Vu Khoan has said.
Recently, there was an event of particular interest to public opinion - it was the UK's withdrawal from the EU (Brexit). Many people wonder whether this event will cause a domino effect, and what lessons can ASEAN draw from this to reinforce its sustainable solidarity?
Vu Khoan: Each country has its own interests. A British Foreign Secretary said: "There are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests”. It is the same for Brexit. How to find harmony is the key to solve the problem. ASEAN has found the key to handle common and private relationships.
I can’t say whether an “exit” will occur in Southeast Asia or not, but the common/individual issues should be given special attention; otherwise the consequences will be serious.
Dr Vo Tri Thanh: The EU and ASEAN have a lot of differences.
Firstly, even in the process of developing and upgrading the EU, the UK had a lot of unsatisfactory things. Furthermore, the recent behavior of the EU such as the admission of new members and handling the debt crisis in Greece, the policy with the influx of migrants ... are different from the UK.
While the UK has a very large position in the EU, it saw the EU’s recent behavior contrary to its policy and this led to conflict. Many social groups in the UK thought that the cost that England paid was much higher than what it received. That's why most Britons chose to leave the EU. ASEAN, although it has many differences, these differences are not serious enough to upset its members.
Secondly, so far only countries outside ASEAN want to join this bloc; no one wants to leave. ASEAN accepts the principle of slow movement. There may be obstacles, but the movements are sustainable and do not create major conflicts.
In any condition, we must try to strengthen and sustain ASEAN.
Dr. Do Duc Dinh: According to the information I get, ASEAN leaders have considered very carefully even when they named ASEAN as an association, not a community or ally. When the Brexit occurred, Lee Kuan Yew’s saying in 2013 was quoted: "Follow the way as the EU did, ASEAN cannot win". And "probably not only ASEAN but also the EU has problems".
Germany and the UK are the key members of the EU. Every year the UK had to contribute Eur8 billion for the EU. Now people ask, after Britain leaves the EU, will Germany and France be able to afford this burden?
In 1997 - 1998, Southeast Asia witnessed a currency crisis. Some suggested that Singapore’s currency could be used as the single currency in ASEAN, but Singapore rejected it, saying that the Singaporean economy was unable to shoulder that burden.
ASEAN has selected important principles for sustainable existence: a) consensus; b) unity in diversity; and c) respecting independence and sovereignty of each member nation while promoting cooperation.
Thanks to these principles, ASEAN has maintained its solidarity and sustainability, and avoided disruption as Brexit. So far, though ASEAN still has some problems; no member state wants to leave the bloc.
What are the remarkable milestones of Vietnam as a member of ASEAN?
Dr Vo Tri Thanh: First of all I have to affirm that ASEAN is valuable for Vietnam: from liberalization and the market economy to resource allocation. ASEAN has actually noted Vietnam’s movements and development. Unlike many other countries, we started cooperation in the region, with neighbors, and with countries that are not too different from us to learn from them. Joining ASEAN can be seen as an exercise to prepare for Vietnam’s deeper integration into the World Trade Organization (WTO) and with other partners.
Secondly, ASEAN is especially suited to the reform process and the development of Vietnam. ASEAN emphasizes the balance between prosperity and narrowing the gap of development; focuses its support on the disadvantaged group so that all members can benefit from the process of integration and development. In ASEAN, Vietnam has a better negotiating position.
Dr. Do Duc Dinh: We are moving forward along with ASEAN countries. We cannot say that ASEAN has brought about great results as the total value of intra-ASEAN trade accounts for only 25% of Vietnam’s total foreign trade value. However, if we look at the progress of ASEAN compared to 10 years ago, when the value of intra-ASEAN trade accounted for only 17-18%, the 25% figure is quite large.
In this context, it is very important for Vietnam. The regional market is not large, but it is expanding and its proportion is increasing compared to our major markets like the US, Europe or China. This suggests that the benefits of ASEAN do not occur quickly, and are not very big but it is progressing.
Secondly, in cooperation with ASEAN, we started from the centralized economy so we've learned a lot from ASEAN.
Vu Khoan: Firstly, from enemies, now Southeast Asian countries have become friends. Before being an ASEAN member, Vietnam was surrounded by hostile countries and now Vietnam is surrounded by friends. In the early 1990s, to break the embargo, Vietnam decided to follow the principle: making friend with neighbors, first of all Southeast Asian countries. The first foreign trip of Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet was to Southeast Asian countries.
Secondly, the position of Vietnam and ASEAN was different. For example, Vietnam’s application to be a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council was supported firstly by ASEAN and then all of Asia. When Vietnam was in negotiations for WTO membership, ASEAN membership was a help. Now many ASEAN countries have sympathy with Vietnam in the East Sea issue.
Thirdly, as a member of ASEAN, Vietnam has a better position in making dialogue with other countries. Fourthly, its trade and export growth, and tourism revenue increase.
These benefits are invisible but we can feel them very clearly, not to mention “soft benefits”. So, in any situation and condition, we always have to strengthen and maintain relations with neighboring countries, especially ASEAN. It is one of the most important diplomatic missions.
Source: Vietnam Net
Key words: ASEAN Economic Community, opportunities, challenges
