When we last checked in with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, it was a deal wounded but not dead.
After the United States withdrew from the controversial agreement, trade watchers anticipated the remaining 11 signatories would simply let the deal fall away. It was assumed that substantial changes to the text would be required, and even re-ratification for the two signatories (Japan and New Zealand) who have already given their formal consent to the deal.
And yet, the deal limped on. New rounds of negotiations were held. Governments have voiced voice tepid optimism that a deal could still be reached with those remaining.
Where are we at now? Just as things appeared to look up for the beleaguered deal, it faced new hurdles. While TPP-boosting Shinzo Abe (pictured above) easily won re-election in Japan this past weekend, his New Zealand counterpart was unceremoniously dumped after failing to secure a majority in September’s elections. New Zealand First, a populist party, threw its support behind the country’s Labour Party and now sits as a junior coalition member in an avowedly trade-skeptic government, which also includes the Green Party.
New Zealand First reports in its official policy book that they intend to “oppose investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions in bilateral and multilateral agreements and by extension the Trans Pacific Partnership-11, which offers little for our exporters.”
What comes next? The concerns on ISDS aren’t new. Lobby groups worldwide have railed against the provisions, which allow for companies to hold signatory nations to account on the deal — a particularly touchy issue for companies in Canada and elsewhere, as they fear they may be targeted by more protectionist administrations in Vietnam, who are party to the deal.
Also, New Zealand isn’t signalling that it wants to tear up the deal, at least not yet.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern did not echo her coalition partners’ ISDS concerns ahead of the next round of negotiations, but she did flag something she had raised in her own election bid: Housing.
She had promised to “ban foreign speculators from buying existing New Zealand homes,” a move — she expects — will run afoul of the TPP. That will be on the table as the TPP signatories meet next week, just outside of Tokyo.
Is there a deal or not? Japan is pushing hard for an agreement coming out of this month’s meetings, but it remains unclear where there is more work to be done to overhaul the deal after Washington’s exit — and as Wellington demands changes.
Michael Geist wrote in the Globe recently that this new chance to revisit the deal may spur Canada to see changes to the IP regime (one, seemingly, written largely at the behest of the now-exited American administration) to allow more freedom for Canadian pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, who currently enjoy more libel patent and IP rules.
Source: Nationalmagazine
Key words: the TPP, coming back, the dead
